International Journal of Current Research and Review
ISSN: 2231-2196 (Print)ISSN: 0975-5241 (Online)
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IJCRR - 2nd Wave of COVID-19: Role of Social Awareness, Health and Technology Sector, June, 2021

Pages: 178-181

Date of Publication: 11-Jun-2021


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Forecasting of Covid-19 Cases in India by Time Series Analysis Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

Author: Khobragade Ashish, Kadam Dilip

Category: Healthcare

Abstract:Introduction: COVID-19 is caused by SARS-CoV-2, a coronavirus. Forecasting has an important role in the surveillance of new emerging diseases like COVID-19. Objective: The objective of the study was to forecast COVID-19 cases by using the ARIMA model. Methods: We have used the ARIMA model to forecast cases of COVID-19 occurring per day in India. A total of 50 observations were used to fit the model. Model is best fitted by using order (0,2,1) which has the lowest AIC value. Forecasted values were compared with actual values. Results: We have found that actual reported cases per day were within 95% CI of forecasted values. Conclusions: ARIMA model can be used to forecast over a short period. This model can be used to develop strategies for the containment of pandemics.

Keywords: ARIMA, COVID-19, Forecast, India, Model, Time series analysis

Full Text:

Introduction:

The first confirmed case of COVID-19 was reported from Wuhan city of China. Soon cases started spreading in China and nearby countries. It was announced as public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) by the World Health Organization (WHO) in January 2020.1 Alert was also given by the WHO regarding the global spread of the disease in March 2020.1More than 151.8 million cases and 31.86 lakh deaths were reported from all over the world as on 2nd May 2021. Total 19.8 million confirmed cases and 2.18 lakh deaths have occurred in India as of 2nd May 2021.2

If we can forecast the new cases which will occur in near future, it will aid in planning the resources required to prevent the occurrence of further cases. Many forecasting models were tried in the case of COVID-19 all over the world and in India.3,4,5 In this study, we have tried a forecasting model based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA).

Objectives:

1. To develop a time series analysis (tsa) forecasting model of COVID-19 cases in India

2. To compare the actual cases of COVID 19 that occurred in India with the forecasted model.

Methodology:

The COVID-19 cases occurring daily in India were reported to the Government of India which has, in turn, appeared in the official dashboard. For the study purpose, the number of COVID-19 cases occurring daily from 17th February to 7th April 2021 per day in India was considered.2,6 The data is available freely on the Government of India portal. This data was extracted in an excel sheet date wise. This data for 50 days was used to predict the occurrence of new cases of COVID-19 for the next five days. The epidemic curve was plotted for the selected period. [Figure 1]

In time series analysis, an ARIMA model is used to forecast future data based on the past available data. The Time series model is forecasted using the ‘Forecast’ package in R software. Fifty data points (daily COVID-19 cases) were first converted to time series data using the ‘ts’ command by taking the start point and endpoint of the data. The frequency was taken as 365.25 as data was related to daily COVID cases.  Non-seasonal ARIMA models are generally denoted by ARIMA order (p,d,q). This order has three components to forecast the model: p, d and q, where p= number of autoregressive terms, d=order of differencing and q=number of lagged forecast errors in prediction.

The pre-requisite to apply the ARIMA model on time series data is that time-series data should be stationary. Time series data is called stationary when it's mean; variance and autocorrelation are constant over some time. Hence, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test was applied on time series data to check for its stationarity. Differencing was done twice to make time-series stationary. Consecutive numbers were subtracted twice for second-order differencing. In this way by differencing, we have removed the trend and seasonality of the data and hence, the mean of the time series is now constant. The stationarity of the data was confirmed by conducting the ADF test again. If the p value is less than 0.05, the data is considered stationary.

The order of the ARIMA model was selected by plotting autocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelation (PACF) graphs. P-value was obtained from pacf graph and q value from acf graph.[Figure 2 and 3] ARIMA model was fitted by using the auto Arima function. Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) was used for fitting the best model. Order having the lowest AIC value was selected as the best fitting model. Forecasting was done by using the fitted model for the next 5 days. The actual number of COVID-19 cases that occurred during this period was compared with forecasted data. The predicted model for the next 30 days was plotted graphically.

Statistical analysis: Statistical analysis was done by using R software version 3.6.1 using the ‘Forecast’ package.

Results: Original data was tested for its stationarity using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and the test results is as follows

 ADF= 0.92, Lag order = 3, p-value = 0.99.

The data is not stationary as the ADF test p-value is more than 0.05. Hence, we have differenced the time series twice to make it stationary. After making differencing, ADF test results are as follows

ADF= -4.78, lag order=3, p value= 0.01. (p value < 0.05 is considered as significant)

The best fitted ARIMA model is (0,2,1) with the lowest AIC value of 965.79. The moving average (ma) coefficient for the fitted model is -0.8796 with a standard error of 0.0649. [Table 1]

The output of the forecasted model for the next 5 days is shown. The actual and predicted cases from 8th to 12th April 2021 is shown in table No.1. All the actual cases are within the range of 95% confidence interval of the predicted cases. [Table 2] Also predicted cases for the next 30 days (from 8th April to 7th May 2021) are plotted graphically [Figure 4].

Discussion:

In this study, we have used the ARIMA model to forecast cases of COVID-19. Without forecasting, it is very difficult to plan the strategies for the surveillance of the disease. When we have a forecasted data, public health surveillance can be carried out in the right direction and inculcate correct intervention measures. Hence, we have planned to do a time series analysis of COVID-19 cases to prove the hypothesis of whether these COVID-19 cases follows time series or not and to forecast the future trends.

We have taken COVID-19 cases that occurred in India as time series data of 50 days. As the data was not stationary, we have done differencing twice to take it stationary. We have used the ARIMA model to forecast using R software. The fitted model for that time series data in order (0,2,1). The AIC and BIC value is lowest for this order. ADF test was used to check stationarity. We have forecasted data for the next 5 days from 8th April to 12th April 2021. We have found that all of the actual cases reported are within the 95% confidence interval of the forecasted cases.

Different ARIMA models are fitted for different countries. In Saudi Arabia, the preferable ARIMA model is (2,1,1).7 Best fitted model for various countries are Italy (0,2,1), Spain (1,2,0) and France (0,2,1).8 Kabir et al. developed the ARIMA model for Nigeria. They used 39 observations to predict the corona cases.9 We have used 50 days of data to predict the daily cases of COVID-19.  Amal et al. forecasted the cases for 10 days using ARIMA and NARANN model. In this study, they used only 1-month of data to predict the cases.10A model to predict cases and deaths were developed in Italy to predict. In this study, the model was fitted by using order (0,2,0) and (2,2,1).11 Similarly, one study forecasted COVID-19 cases for two days using ARIMA model of order (1,2,0) and (1,0,4).12 In our study, ARIMA model is best fitted by using order (0,2,1). Actual cases reported for the next 5 days are within a 95% confidence interval of the predicted values.

Previously many time series models were used for forecasting infectious disease surveillance.  Public health experts can predict how much variability will be there in future regarding the pattern of the disease.13 Cases should be updated regularly so that if there is any change in the time trend of the disease, it will reflect in the model. The model will give a good prediction of the future trend of the disease. ARIMA model can be used for epidemiological surveillance of the new emerging diseases like COVID-19. So that correct intervention can be done at the correct time to prevent morbidity and mortality from the disease.

Conclusion: Actual cases of COVID-19 are within 95% CI of the predicted ARIMA model (0,2,1). ARIMA model can accurately predict the occurrence of COVID-19 cases.  This model may be developed for state & district levels to predict COVID-19 cases.

Recommendation: Forecasting must be a part of routine surveillance activities in the pandemic situation of new emerging diseases like COVID-19.

Acknowledgement: We express gratitude to the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, Government of India for the supporting data, used in this research.

Conflict of interest: None

Source of funding: Nil

Author’s contributions: Both authors have conceptualized the article. The manuscript was written by the 1st author and edited by the 2nd author. Data analysis was done by the 1st author.

References:

  1. WHO. Timeline: WHO COVID-19 response. Available from https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/interactive-timeline

  2. WHO. Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard. Available from  https://covid19.who.int/

  3. Aravind M, Srinath K, Maheswari N, Sivagami M. Predicting COVID-19 Cases in the Indian States using Random Forest Regression. Int J Cur Res Rev. 2021;3:109-114.

  4. Theerthagiri P, Jacob JI, Ruby UA, Yendapalli V. Prediction of COVID-19 Possibilities using K-Nearest Neighbour. Class Int J Curr Res Rev. 2017;3:156-164.

  5. Yash S, Shikhar B, Parvathi R. Covid-19 Forecasting and Analysis Using Different Time-Series Model and Algorithms. Int J Cur Res Rev.2021;23: 184-189.

  6. MOHFW, Govt. of India. COVID-19 status. Available from https://www.mohfw.gov.in/

  7. Alzahrani SI, Aljamaan IA, Al-Fakih EA. Forecasting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in Saudi Arabia using the ARIMA prediction model under current public health interventions. J Infect Public Health [Internet]. 2020;13(7):914–9. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jiph.2020.06.001

  8. Ceylan Z. Estimation of COVID-19 prevalence in Italy, Spain, and France. Sci Total Environ. 2020:10;(7):138-148. Available from: https://doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138817

  9. Abdulmajeed K, Adeleke M, Popoola L. Online Forecasting of Covid-19 Cases in Nigeria Using Limited Data. Data Br. 2020; 30:105683. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2020.105683

  10. Saba AI, Elsheikh AH. Forecasting the prevalence of COVID-19 outbreak in Egypt using nonlinear autoregressive artificial neural networks. Process Saf Environ Prot. 2020 Sep;141:1-8. doi: 10.1016/j.psep.2020.05.029.

  11. Yang Q, Wang J, Ma H, Wang X. Research on COVID-19 based on ARIMA modelΔ-Taking Hubei, China as an example to see the epidemic in Italy. J Infect Public Health. 2020 Jun 20:S1876-0341. doi: 10.1016/j.jiph.2020.06.019.

  12. Benvenuto D, Giovanetti M, Vassallo L, Angeletti S, Ciccozzi M. Application of the ARIMA model on the COVID-2019 epidemic dataset. Data Br. 2020; 29:105340. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2020.105340

  13. Allard R. Use of time-series analysis in infectious disease surveillance. Bull World Health Organ. 1998;76(4):327–33.

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One article from every issue is selected for the ‘Best Article Award’. Authors of selected ‘Best Article’ are rewarded with a certificate. IJCRR Editorial Board members select one ‘Best Article’ from the published issue based on originality, novelty, social usefulness of the work. The corresponding author of selected ‘Best Article Award’ is communicated and information of award is displayed on IJCRR’s website. Drop a mail to editor@ijcrr.com for more details.

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This award is instituted to encourage women researchers to publish her work in IJCRR. Women researcher, who intends to publish her research work in IJCRR as the first author is eligible to apply for this award. Editorial Board members decide on the selection of women researchers based on the originality, novelty, and social contribution of the research work. The corresponding author of the selected manuscript is communicated and information is displayed on IJCRR’s website. Under this award selected women, the author is eligible for publication incentives. Drop a mail to editor@ijcrr.com for more details.

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‘Emerging Researcher Award’ is instituted to encourage student researchers to publish their work in IJCRR. Student researchers, who intend to publish their research or review work in IJCRR as the first author are eligible to apply for this award. Editorial Board members decide on the selection of student researchers for the said award based on originality, novelty, and social applicability of the research work. Under this award selected student researcher is eligible for publication incentives. Drop a mail to editor@ijcrr.com for more details.


Best Article Award

A Study by Amr Y. Zakaria et al. entitled "Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms of ATP-Binding Cassette Gene(ABCC3 rs4793665) affect High Dose Methotrexate-Induced Nephrotoxicity in Children with Osteosarcoma" is awarded Best Article for Vol 13 issue 19
A Study by Kholis Ernawati et al. entitled "The Utilization of Mobile-Based Information Technology in the Management of Dengue Fever in the Community Year 2019-2020: Systematic Review" is awarded Best Article for Vol 13 issue 18
A Study by Bhat Asifa et al. entitled "Efficacy of Modified Carbapenem Inactivation Method for Carbapenemase Detection and Comparative Evaluation with Polymerase Chain Reaction for the Identification of Carbapenemase Producing Klebsiella pneumonia Isolates" is awarded Best Article for Vol 13 issue 17
A Study by Gupta R. et al. entitled "A Clinical Study of Paediatric Tracheostomy: Our Experience in a Tertiary Care Hospital in North India" is awarded Best Article for Vol 13 issue 16
A Study by Chandran Anand et al. entitled "A Prospective Study on Assessment of Quality of Life of Patients Receiving Sorafenib for Hepatocellular Carcinoma" is awarded Best article for Vol 13 issue 15
A Study by Rosa PS et al. entitled "Emotional State Due to the Covid – 19 Pandemic in People Residing in a Vulnerable Area in North Lima" is awarded Best Article for Vol 13 issue 14
A Study by Suvarna Sunder J et al. entitled "Endodontic Revascularization of Necrotic Permanent Anterior Tooth with Platelet Rich Fibrin, Platelet Rich Plasma, and Blood Clot - A Comparative Study" is awarded Best Article for Vol 13 issue 13
A Study by Mona Isam Eldin Osman et al. entitled "Psychological Impact and Risk Factors of Sexual Abuse on Sudanese Children in Khartoum State" is awarded Best Article for Vol 13 issue 12
A Study by Khaw Ming Sheng & Sathiapriya Ramiah entitled "Web Based Suicide Prevention Application for Patients Suffering from Depression" is awarded Best Article for Vol 13 issue 11
A Study by Purushottam S. G. et al. entitled "Development of Fenofibrate Solid Dispersions for the Plausible Aqueous Solubility Augmentation of this BCS Class-II Drug" is awarded Best article for Vol 13 issue 10
A Study by Kumar S. et al. entitled "A Study on Clinical Spectrum, Laboratory Profile, Complications and Outcome of Pediatric Scrub Typhus Patients Admitted to an Intensive Care Unit from a Tertiary Care Hospital from Eastern India" is awarded Best Article for Vol 13 issue 09
A Study by Mardhiah Kamaruddin et al. entitled "The Pattern of Creatinine Clearance in Gestational and Chronic Hypertension Women from the Third Trimester to 12 Weeks Postpartum" is awarded Best Article for Vol 13 issue 08
A Study by Sarmila G. B. et al. entitled "Study to Compare the Efficacy of Orally Administered Melatonin and Clonidine for Attenuation of Hemodynamic Response During Laryngoscopy and Endotracheal Intubation in Gastrointestinal Surgeries" is awarded Best Article for Vol 13 issue 07
A Study by M. Muthu Uma Maheswari et al. entitled "A Study on C-reactive Protein and Liver Function Tests in Laboratory RT-PCR Positive Covid-19 Patients in a Tertiary Care Centre – A Retrospective Study" is awarded Best Article of Vol 13 issue 06 Special issue Modern approaches for diagnosis of COVID-19 and current status of awareness
A Study by Gainneos PD et al. entitled "A Comparative Evaluation of the Levels of Salivary IgA in HIV Affected Children and the Children of the General Population within the Age Group of 9 – 12 Years – A Cross-Sectional Study" is awarded Best Article of Vol 13 issue 05 Special issue on Recent Advances in Dentistry for better Oral Health
A Study by Alkhansa Mahmoud et al. entitled "mRNA Expression of Somatostatin Receptors (1-5) in MCF7 and MDA-MB231 Breast Cancer Cells" is awarded Best Article of Vol 13 issue 06
A Study by Chen YY and Ghazali SRB entitled "Lifetime Trauma, posttraumatic stress disorder Symptoms and Early Adolescence Risk Factors for Poor Physical Health Outcome Among Malaysian Adolescents" is awarded Best Article of Vol 13 issue 04 Special issue on Current Updates in Plant Biology to Medicine to Healthcare Awareness in Malaysia
A Study by Kumari PM et al. entitled "Study to Evaluate the Adverse Drug Reactions in a Tertiary Care Teaching Hospital in Tamilnadu - A Cross-Sectional Study" is awarded Best Article for Vol 13 issue 05
A Study by Anu et al. entitled "Effectiveness of Cytological Scoring Systems for Evaluation of Breast Lesion Cytology with its Histopathological Correlation" is awarded Best Article of Vol 13 issue 04
A Study by Sharipov R. Kh. et al. entitled "Interaction of Correction of Lipid Peroxidation Disorders with Oxibral" is awarded Best Article of Vol 13 issue 03
A Study by Tarek Elwakil et al. entitled "Led Light Photobiomodulation Effect on Wound Healing Combined with Phenytoin in Mice Model" is awarded Best Article of Vol 13 issue 02
A Study by Mohita Ray et al. entitled "Accuracy of Intra-Operative Frozen Section Consultation of Gastrointestinal Biopsy Samples in Correlation with the Final Histopathological Diagnosis" is awarded Best Article for Vol 13 issue 01
A Study by Badritdinova MN et al. entitled "Peculiarities of a Pain in Patients with Ischemic Heart Disease in the Presence of Individual Combines of the Metabolic Syndrome" is awarded Best Article for Vol 12 issue 24
A Study by Sindhu Priya E S et al. entitled "Neuroprotective activity of Pyrazolone Derivatives Against Paraquat-induced Oxidative Stress and Locomotor Impairment in Drosophila melanogaster" is awarded Best Article for Vol 12 issue 23
A Study by Habiba Suhail et al. entitled "Effect of Majoon Murmakki in Dysmenorrhoea (Usre Tams): A Standard Controlled Clinical Study" is awarded Best Article for Vol 12 issue 22
A Study by Ghaffar UB et al. entitled "Correlation between Height and Foot Length in Saudi Population in Majmaah, Saudi Arabia" is awarded Best Article for Vol 12 issue 21
A Study by situs slot and Siti Sarah Binti Maidin entitled "Sleep Well: Mobile Application to Address Sleeping Problems" is awarded Best Article for Vol 12 issue 20
A Study by Avijit Singh et al. situs slot "Comparison of Post Operative Clinical Outcomes Between “Made in India” TTK Chitra Mechanical Heart Valve Versus St Jude Mechanical Heart Valve in Valve Replacement Surgery" is awarded Best Article for Vol 12 issue 19
A Study by Sonali Banerjee and Mary Mathews N. entitled "Exploring Quality of Life and Perceived Experiences Among Couples Undergoing Fertility Treatment in Western India: A Mixed Methodology" is awarded Best Article for Vol 12 issue 18
A Study by Jabbar Desai et al. entitled "Prevalence of Obstructive Airway Disease in Patients with Ischemic Heart Disease and Hypertension" is awarded Best Article for Vol 12 issue 17
A Study by Juna Byun et al. entitled "Study on Difference in Coronavirus-19 Related Anxiety between Face-to-face and Non-face-to-face Classes among University Students in South Korea" is awarded Best Article for Vol 12 issue 16
A Study by Sudha Ramachandra & Vinay Chavan entitled "Enhanced-Hybrid-Age Layered Population Structure (E-Hybrid-ALPS): A Genetic Algorithm with Adaptive Crossover for Molecular Docking Studies of Drug Discovery Process" is awarded Best article for Vol 12 issue 15
A Study by Varsha M. Shindhe et al. entitled "A Study on Effect of Smokeless Tobacco on Pulmonary Function Tests in Class IV Workers of USM-KLE (Universiti Sains Malaysia-Karnataka Lingayat Education Society) International Medical Programme, Belagavi" is awarded Best article of Vol 12 issue 14, July 2020
A study by Amruta Choudhary et al. entitled "Family Planning Knowledge, Attitude and Practice Among Women of Reproductive Age from Rural Area of Central India" is awarded Best Article for special issue "Modern Therapeutics Applications"
A study by Raunak Das entitled "Study of Cardiovascular Dysfunctions in Interstitial Lung Diseas epatients by Correlating the Levels of Serum NT PRO BNP and Microalbuminuria (Biomarkers of Cardiovascular Dysfunction) with Echocardiographic, Bronchoscopic and HighResolution Computed Tomography Findings of These ILD Patients" is awarded Best Article of Vol 12 issue 13 
A Study by Kannamani Ramasamy et al. entitled "COVID-19 Situation at Chennai City – Forecasting for the Better Pandemic Management" is awarded best article for  Vol 12 issue 12
A Study by Muhammet Lutfi SELCUK and Fatma situs slot entitled "Distinction of Gray and White Matter for Some Histological Staining Methods in New Zealand Rabbit's Brain" is awarded best article for  Vol 12 issue 11
A Study by Anamul Haq et al. entitled "Etiology of Abnormal Uterine Bleeding in Adolescents – Emphasis Upon Polycystic Ovarian Syndrome" is awarded best article for  Vol 12 issue 10
A Study by situs slot et al entitled "Estimation of Reference Interval of Serum Progesterone During Three Trimesters of Normal Pregnancy in a Tertiary Care Hospital of Kolkata" is awarded best article for  Vol 12 issue 09
A Study by Ilona Gracie De Souza & Pavan Kumar G. entitled "Effect of Releasing Myofascial Chain in Patients with Patellofemoral Pain Syndrome - A Randomized Clinical Trial" is awarded best article for  Vol 12 issue 08
A Study by Virendra Atam et. al. entitled "Clinical Profile and Short - Term Mortality Predictors in Acute Stroke with Emphasis on Stress Hyperglycemia and THRIVE Score : An Observational Study" is awarded best article for  Vol 12 issue 07
A Study by K. Krupashree et. al. entitled "Protective Effects of Picrorhizakurroa Against Fumonisin B1 Induced Hepatotoxicity in Mice" is awarded best article for issue Vol 10 issue 20
A study by Mithun K.P. et al "Larvicidal Activity of Crude Solanum Nigrum Leaf and Berries Extract Against Dengue Vector-Aedesaegypti" is awarded Best Article for Vol 10 issue 14 of IJCRR
A study by Asha Menon "Women in Child Care and Early Education: Truly Nontraditional Work" is awarded Best Article for Vol 10 issue 13
A study by Deep J. M. "Prevalence of Molar-Incisor Hypomineralization in 7-13 Years Old Children of Biratnagar, Nepal: A Cross Sectional Study" is awarded Best Article for Vol 10 issue 11 of IJCRR
A review by Chitra et al to analyse relation between Obesity and Type 2 diabetes is awarded 'Best Article' for Vol 10 issue 10 by IJCRR. 
A study by Karanpreet et al "Pregnancy Induced Hypertension: A Study on Its Multisystem Involvement" is given Best Paper Award for Vol 10 issue 09
Late to bed everyday? You may die early, get depression situs slot
Egg a day tied to lower risk of heart disease situs slot
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List of Awardees

A Study by Ese Anibor et al. "Evaluation of Temporomandibular Joint Disorders Among Delta State University Students in Abraka, Nigeria" from Vol 13 issue 16 received Emerging Researcher Award


A Study by Alkhansa Mahmoud et al. entitled "mRNA Expression of Somatostatin Receptors (1-5) in MCF7 and MDA-MB231 Breast Cancer Cells" from Vol 13 issue 06 received Emerging Researcher Award


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