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IJCRR - 3(10), October, 2011

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GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES AND CYCLONIC ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
DURING 22nd and 23rd SOLAR CYCLE

Author: R.Samuel Selvaraj, R.Uma

Category: General Sciences

Abstract:Tropical Cyclone activities over the North Indian Ocean (comprising Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea)
constitute one of the major natural disasters of our country. To understand the Tropical Cyclonic
activities, estimations of their frequencies are necessary. In this study, number of Geomagnetic Storms
(Sudden and Gradual type) during 22nd and 23rd solar cycle and Cyclonic disturbance that includes
Depression, Cyclonic Storm and Severe Cyclonic Storm over the North Indian Ocean has been analysed
using Spearman Rank Correlation technique. Geomagnetic Storms increase the Cyclonic Activity over the
North Indian Ocean.

Keywords: geomagnetic storms, tropical cyclone, solar cycle, spearman rank correlation, etc.

Full Text:

INTRODUCTION

Cyclones are caused by several factors. Most important factors are Sea Surface Temperature and Coriolis force. Tropical Cyclones over Bay of Bengal are generally higher both in terms of their frequency and intensity (G.Krishnakumar et al., 2006). Raman P.k. and Raghavan (1961) found that the number of monsoon storms/depressions striking the Bay Coast near Calcutta respond to annual sunspots. He showed inverse relationships between them. Upper winds at 4 km and above indicated that the decline of storms/depressions striking the coast is accompanied by a southward shift of the Tibetian summer anti-cyclone in the years of maximum sunspot activity. A lot of papers are documented in the study of cyclonic activity and magnetic storms. The various types of Solar Dynamic phenomena occurring on the solar surfaces are responsible for Interplanetary and Geomagnetic disturbances. A Solar phenomena known as Coronal Mass Ejection is known to be responsible for Geomagnetic storms (Jagannathan P and Bhalme H N 1973). Jagannathan and Bhalme (1973) found smaller frequency of storms/depressions and shorter westward extent of their tracks during sunspot maximum than during sunspot minimum. Bhalme (1975b) also reported statistically significant (at 5% level) inverse relationships between the number of monsoon storms/depressions and annual sunspots, and an apparent cycle with a period of about 40 years superimposed on linear decreasing trend in monsoon storms/depressions also showing inverse resemblance with sunspot trend in recent years. Regular solar radiation changes affect the Earth's magnetic field. Irregular current systems produce magnetic field changes caused by the interaction of the solar wind with the magnetosphere, by the magnetosphere itself, by the interactions between the magnetosphere and ionosphere, and by the ionosphere itself. The variation of magnetic field, more notably its short-term components, is due to disturbances in the earth‘s electromagnetic environment caused by solar activity. The degree of disturbance in the magnetic field is indicated by what are called indices of geomagnetic activity. There have been several such indices devised for research and application purposes. The more prominent of these are Dst, Ap, kp, Cp and AE. The official planetary Kp index is derived by calculating a weighted average of k-indices from a network of geomagnetic observatories. The k-index is a code that is related to the maximum fluctuations of horizontal components observed on a magnetometer relative to a quite day, during a three-hour interval. Dst is an index of strength of the symmetric westward ring current which encircles the earth in the equatorial belt of roughly ±30? notably during storm-times. This ring current has a dipole moment which is directed opposite to the earth‘s natural magnetic field. A significant positive correlation between the averaged Kp index of global geomagnetic activity and hurricane intensity as measured by maximum sustained wind speed is identified for baroclinically-initiated hurricanes. A significant statistical relationship between geomagnetic activity as measured by the Kp index and hurricane intensity as measured by the maximum wind speed for a certain type of higher-latitude hurricanes (James B. Elsner and S.P. Kavlakov 2001). Correlations between hurricane occurrence and several solar activityrelated phenomena, such as the total solar irradiance, the cosmic ray flux and the Dst index of geomagnetic activity. Results indicate that the highest significant correlations are found between the Atlantic and Pacific hurricanes and the Dst index. Most importantly, both oceans present the highest hurricane–Dst correlations during the ascending part of odd solar cycles and the descending phase of even solar cycles (Blanca Mendoza and Marni Pazos 2009). During maximum period of solar activity huge amounts of solar energy particles are released from the sun. They are responsible for geomagnetic disturbances. The solar cycle, or the solar magnetic activity cycle, is the main source of the ~10.7 year periodic solar variation (changing the level of irradiation experienced on Earth) which drives variations in space weather and to some degree weather on the ground and possibly climate change.The cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. We have analysed the number of Geomagnetic storms during the 22nd (1986-1996) and 23rd (1997-2007) Solar Cycle and Cyclonic activity over the North Indian Ocean. A Geomagnetic activity is represented by velocity of Solar Wind Streams and Interplanetary magnetic field. Geomagnetic storm consists of sudden storm commencement and gradual storm commencement. The geomagnetic activity is represented by Dst index.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Spearman‘s rank correlation technique is used to find out the statistical relationship between Geomagnetic Storms during 22nd and 23rd solar cycle and frequency of Cyclonic disturbance includes depression, cyclonic Storm and severe Cyclonic Storm over Indian Ocean. The ?classical or parametric stat? requires three major conditions like (i) measurement of the observations are available on interval or ratio scale, (ii) the background population of the MATERIAL AND METHODS Spearman‘s rank correlation technique is used to find out the statistical relationship between Geomagnetic Storms during 22nd and 23rd solar cycle and frequency of Cyclonic disturbance includes depression, cyclonic Storm and severe Cyclonic Storm over Indian Ocean. The ?classical or parametric stat? requires three major conditions like (i) measurement of the observations are available on interval or ratio scale, (ii) the background population of the. Generally Geomagnetic Storms are classified into two categories as sudden type and gradual type. Table I and II illustrates number of Geomagnetic storms (sudden and gradual) and number of Cyclonic disturbance over the North Indian Ocean during 22nd solar activity. Table III and IV illustrates number of Geomagnetic storms (sudden and gradual) and number of Cyclonic disturbance over the North Indian Ocean during 23rd solar activity. Graphs are plotted separately for sudden and gradual type of the number of Geomagnetic Storms and Frequency of Cyclonic disturbance over the North Indian Ocean. Fig I and II illustrates the comparison and variations of the number of Sudden and Gradual type of Geomagnetic Storms with the frequency of cyclonic disturbance during 22nd solar cycle. Fig III and IV illustrates the comparison and variations of the number of Sudden and Gradual type of Geomagnetic Storms with the frequency of cyclonic disturbance during 23rd solar cycle. Fig V and VI illustrates the comparison and variations of the number of Sudden and Gradual type of Geomagnetic Storms with the frequency of cyclonic disturbance during 22nd and 23rd solar cycle.

RESULTS

The Spearman Rank correlation values for Sudden and Gradual type of Geomagnetic Storms with the number of Cyclonic disturbance over the North Indian Ocean for 22nd solar cycle was found to be 0.403 and 0.697. On the other hand, the correlated value for 23rd solar cycle was found to be -0.099 and -0.27 respectively. This explains whenever geomagnetic storms forms; the number of cyclone also increases to some extent over the North Indian Ocean during 22nd and 23rd Solar Cycle.

DISCUSSIONS

Both Sudden and Gradual type of Geomagnetic Storms influences the cyclonic activity over the International Journal of Current Research and Review www.ijcrr.com Vol. 03 issue 10 October 2011 63 North Indian Ocean. The Spearmen‘s Rank Correlation Coefficient for 22nd and 23rd solar cycle was found to be 0.297 and -0.09965 for sudden type and 0.771 and -0.27448 for gradual type of geomagnetic storms. This explains whenever geomagnetic storms forms; the number of cyclone also increases to some extent over the North Indian Ocean during 22nd and 23rd Solar Cycle.

References:

REFERENCES

1. Blanca Mendoza and Marni Pazos 2009 Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics A 22 yr hurricane cycle and its relation with geomagnetic activity Volume 71, Issues 17-18, December 2009, Pages 2047-2054

2. Bhalme H N 1973b Solar activity and Indian weather/climate Vayu Mandal 5 12

3. S.C.Dubey and A.P.Mishra July 1999 Solar Activity and Large Geomagnetic Disturbances Current Science, vol. 77, No. 2

4. S.C.Dubey and A.P.Mishra 2000 Characteristics of Large Geomagnetic Storms during solar cycle 22, Indian J Radio Space Phys, 29,51

5. S.C.Dubey and A.P.Mishra June 2000 Flare index of Solar Activity and Global Geomagnetic Variability Current Science, vol. 78, No. 11, 10

6. Jagannathan P and Bhalme H N 1973 Changes in the pattern of distribution of southwest monsoon rainfall over India associated with sunspots Mon. Wea. Rev. 101,691-700

7. James B. Elsner and S.P. Kavlakov Atmospheric Science Letters (2001) Hurricane intensity changes associated with Geomagnetic variation doi:10.1006/asle.2001.0040

8. G.Krishnakumar, Alaka S.Gadgil and M.Rajeevan 2006 Sea surface temperatures as predictors of cyclonic activity over the North Indian Ocean J.Ind.Geophys.Union Vol.10, No.3,pp.187-195

9. S.P.Kavlakov and J.Elsner 30th International Cosmic Ray Conference Geomagnetic Disturbances and Atlantic Hurricane Intensification.

10. Raman P.k. and K. Raghavan 1961, Diurnal variation of thunder some in India during different seasons. Indian J. Meteorol. Geophys., 12, 1, 115-130

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