IJCRR - Vol 07 Issue 16, August, 2015
APPLICATION OF GRAFTED POLYNOMIAL MODEL AS APPROXIMATING FUNCTIONS IN FORECASTING COTTON PRODUCTION TRENDS IN ZAMFARA STATE, NIGERIA[1995-2013].
Author: Odedokun V.O., Ahmed B., Omolehin R.A., and Atala T.K.
The aim of this paper was to predict cotton production trends based on time series data from 1995 to 2013 in Zamfara state, Nigeria. The forecasting model that was applied to estimate cotton production trends was a grafted polynomial model “quadraticquadratic- linear” function. Grafted models are used in econometrics to embark on economic analysis involving time series. Economic time series data were used in order to estimate the possible production and supply trends of cotton in the study area. In the application of the grafted polynomial model used to forecast cotton production trends, the estimates of the linear and grafted
functions were utilized to obtain ex-post forecast of cotton. The values of the grafted (mean) function of 123,000 tons were closer to the observed values of 129,000 tons resulting in smaller difference during the sub- period (2006-2013) under consideration when compared with linear values of 137,000 tons. The forecast of production and supply trends among cotton farmers revealed that the grafted model provided better estimates since they were closer to the observed values during the sub-period under consideration.
Keywords: Grafted model, Forecasting, Cotton, Production, Zamfara state, Nigeria
Odedokun V.O., Ahmed B., Omolehin R.A., and Atala T.K.. APPLICATION OF GRAFTED POLYNOMIAL MODEL AS APPROXIMATING FUNCTIONS IN FORECASTING COTTON PRODUCTION TRENDS IN ZAMFARA STATE, NIGERIA[1995-2013]. International Journal of Current Research and Review. Vol 07 Issue 16, August, 68-73
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