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International Journal of Current Research and Review
ISSN: 2231-2196 (Print)ISSN: 0975-5241 (Online)
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IJCRR DOI Prefix (CrossRef): 10.31782/2231-2196

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Abstract

IJCRR - 7(16), August, 2015

Pages: 68-73

APPLICATION OF GRAFTED POLYNOMIAL MODEL AS APPROXIMATING FUNCTIONS IN FORECASTING COTTON PRODUCTION TRENDS IN ZAMFARA STATE, NIGERIA[1995-2013].

Author: Odedokun V.O., Ahmed B., Omolehin R.A., and Atala T.K.

Category: Healthcare

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Abstract:

The aim of this paper was to predict cotton production trends based on time series data from 1995 to 2013 in Zamfara state, Nigeria. The forecasting model that was applied to estimate cotton production trends was a grafted polynomial model “quadraticquadratic- linear” function. Grafted models are used in econometrics to embark on economic analysis involving time series. Economic time series data were used in order to estimate the possible production and supply trends of cotton in the study area. In the application of the grafted polynomial model used to forecast cotton production trends, the estimates of the linear and grafted
functions were utilized to obtain ex-post forecast of cotton. The values of the grafted (mean) function of 123,000 tons were closer to the observed values of 129,000 tons resulting in smaller difference during the sub- period (2006-2013) under consideration when compared with linear values of 137,000 tons. The forecast of production and supply trends among cotton farmers revealed that the grafted model provided better estimates since they were closer to the observed values during the sub-period under consideration.

Keywords: Grafted model, Forecasting, Cotton, Production, Zamfara state, Nigeria

 Citation:

Odedokun V.O., Ahmed B., Omolehin R.A., and Atala T.K.. APPLICATION OF GRAFTED POLYNOMIAL MODEL AS APPROXIMATING FUNCTIONS IN FORECASTING COTTON PRODUCTION TRENDS IN ZAMFARA STATE, NIGERIA[1995-2013]. International Journal of Current Research and Review. 7(16), August, 68-73

References:

1. Adubi, A. A. (2001). Agriculture in the Nigerian Economy. Being a Paper Presented At the Workshop on Planning and Management of Agriculture Sector, August 14 – 25, Organized by Nigeria Centre for Economic Management. (NCEMA), Ibadan.

2. Batterham, R. (2000). The Chance to Change. Discussion Paper by the Chief Scientist Camberra, African Summit, Abuja, Nigeria.

3. Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), (2011). Estimated Output of MajorAgricultural Commodities. Annual Report.

4. Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), (2011). Gross Domestic Product at 1990 Constant Basic Prices. Central Bank of Nigeria. Annual Report.

5. Fuller, W. A. (1969). Grafted Polynomials as Approximating Functions: In Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics. 35- 46.

6. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), (2011). Nigeria Gross Domestic Product at 1990 Constant Basic Prices.

7. National Population Commision (NPC), (2006). Population Census of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Analytical Report at the National Population commission, Abuja, Nigeria.

8. Philip, D. O. A. (1990), Grafted Polynomials as Forecasting Functions: Application to Cotton Production in Nigeria 1(1): 103-108.

9. United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), (2013). Available on-line @http: Nigeria. unfpa.org/zamfara.html. Retrieved: 05/12/2013.

10. United State Department of Agriculture. (USDA), (2011). Nigeria Cotton Production by year.http://www.indexmundi.comAccessed, 02/09/2011.

11. Yakubu, A.A. (2005). Risk and Risk Management in Cotton Production among Farmers in Zamfara State, Nigeria. Unpublished M.Sc. Thesis Submitted to the Department of Agricultural Economics, Usman Dan Fodio University, Sokoto, Sokoto State, Nigeria.

12. Zamfara State (2010). www.zamfarastate. etAccessed Jan. 2013.

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One article from every issue is selected for the ‘Best Article Award’. Authors of selected ‘Best Article’ are rewarded with a certificate. IJCRR Editorial Board members select one ‘Best Article’ from the published issue based on originality, novelty, social usefulness of the work. The corresponding author of selected ‘Best Article Award’ is communicated and information of award is displayed on IJCRR’s website. Drop a mail to editor@ijcrr.com for more details.

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A Study by Ese Anibor et al. "Evaluation of Temporomandibular Joint Disorders Among Delta State University Students in Abraka, Nigeria" from Vol 13 issue 16 received Emerging Researcher Award

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